The original posting of this article is here.
Be sure to check on the current issue of Explode Your Paradigm here
I did something last night I had never done before. My wife and I participated in the NITE Ride, a 20 mile ride through Indianapolis that began at 11:00 PM at night. Wew were joined by about 3000 others many of whom have been participating in the ride, conducted annually by CIBA (Central Indiana Biking Association), for years. I rode through streets and through places that were very familiar to me and that I had ridden around and through for years. What was amazing was I did it at night, with the assist of a small headlamp (until it broke half way through the ride) and a blinking tail light. The surroundings were the same but everything was different. There were policemen on every corner holding up traffic allowing us to pass. Volunteers pointed out potholes and other obstructions and where to turn. Looking ahead was a ribbon of a hundred or so blinking red lights. Looking back, well you didn’t want to look back too often, you may run into a pothole. I came away with a new appreciation for the city of Indianapolis, our police department, and the volunteers that made the event possible. I learned that something very familiar can become even more exciting when looked at from a different perspective.
In a scene from Dead Poets Society John Keating (played by Robin Williams) has his students eat with their non dominant hand. He asks what is different? What challenges does this create. How do you see the world differently?
So what can we learn? What was reinforced to me last night is to look at obstacles, opportunities, and basic responsibilities from a different perspective. You may come up with insights and ideas that you never thought possible.
Until next time – all the best!
RolandB
Monday, June 28, 2010
Prepare for the Unknown
The original posting of this article is here
Be sure to check on the current issue of Explode Your Paradigm here
What would you do if you knew there would be a major earthquake in China sometime during 2012? Before you say “I would not travel to China in 2012” let me tell you that you are currently in charge of operations of a global trading company that has a large distribution hub in Beijing.
What would you do today or in the next 6 months if you knew that this earthquake could cripple your Asian business? That was the question Dr. Mahender Singh from MIT asked a number of us attending a supply chain conference recently.
After we got through the “how do you know?” questions Dr. Singh asked us to push the I believe button and move on with the exercise. The group decided to get all of our experts together, analyze the problem, suggest alternatives and recommend a solution. We built another distribution center in Australia to handle the load in case the China facility was knocked out.
Well January 1, 2013 came and the predicted earthquake had not happened. You get a call from your CEO stating that your efforts cost the company millions of dollars without a return. Never again would you be trusted. Not a good day ……………
6 months later in July 2013 H1N1 flu pandemic hits China. The entire county is quarantined shutting down trade in and out of the area. Your facility in Beijing is shut down. The distribution center in Australia is not affected however and is able to handle the increased volume. Your company survives and in fact grows by selling to your competitor’s customers that cannot get shipments from China.
Your CEO takes you out to dinner and you get a promotion. If you had not planned for the expected earthquake that never happened you would have not been ready for the unexpected pandemic that did.
Dr. Singh said we need to plan for the known and prepare for the unknown. We are reasonably good at planning for the known. The issue is in many cases we don’t spend the time and the energy to prepare honestly for the unknown. Who would have known that an oil well would explode in the Gulf of Mexico and the resulting spill would foul hundreds of miles of beach and thousand of square miles of fishing grounds. How do you get yourself ready for the future?
The secret according to Dr. Singh is to start with the future, such as the earthquake in China, and bring it back to today. If we know the future what will we do about it today to help get our business ready? As part of your strategic planning exercise create a number of catastrophic scenarios and seriously figure out what you would do.
This was standard practice when I was in the Navy as an officer on a submarine. We would start with the “what ifs” and work backwards to determine the “what do you do”? It took a lot of time and we had many things to do that we thought were much more important. Not doing the exercise was not an option. First we were in the military and we had to do what we were ordered to do. Second we were driving a US warship that was powered with a nuclear reactor. If something happened we had to be perfect. The exercise was successful. We made mistakes, we learned from each other, we were prepared and if any of those unexpected scenarios happened we were ready.
So what can you do to get ready for the future? First, block out time for the exercise. Get away from the hectic day-to-day (i.e. turn off the cell phone) and get your leadership team off site. Dr. Singh asked three questions to help get the discussion started:
Be sure to check on the current issue of Explode Your Paradigm here
What would you do if you knew there would be a major earthquake in China sometime during 2012? Before you say “I would not travel to China in 2012” let me tell you that you are currently in charge of operations of a global trading company that has a large distribution hub in Beijing.
What would you do today or in the next 6 months if you knew that this earthquake could cripple your Asian business? That was the question Dr. Mahender Singh from MIT asked a number of us attending a supply chain conference recently.
After we got through the “how do you know?” questions Dr. Singh asked us to push the I believe button and move on with the exercise. The group decided to get all of our experts together, analyze the problem, suggest alternatives and recommend a solution. We built another distribution center in Australia to handle the load in case the China facility was knocked out.
Well January 1, 2013 came and the predicted earthquake had not happened. You get a call from your CEO stating that your efforts cost the company millions of dollars without a return. Never again would you be trusted. Not a good day ……………
6 months later in July 2013 H1N1 flu pandemic hits China. The entire county is quarantined shutting down trade in and out of the area. Your facility in Beijing is shut down. The distribution center in Australia is not affected however and is able to handle the increased volume. Your company survives and in fact grows by selling to your competitor’s customers that cannot get shipments from China.
Your CEO takes you out to dinner and you get a promotion. If you had not planned for the expected earthquake that never happened you would have not been ready for the unexpected pandemic that did.
Dr. Singh said we need to plan for the known and prepare for the unknown. We are reasonably good at planning for the known. The issue is in many cases we don’t spend the time and the energy to prepare honestly for the unknown. Who would have known that an oil well would explode in the Gulf of Mexico and the resulting spill would foul hundreds of miles of beach and thousand of square miles of fishing grounds. How do you get yourself ready for the future?
The secret according to Dr. Singh is to start with the future, such as the earthquake in China, and bring it back to today. If we know the future what will we do about it today to help get our business ready? As part of your strategic planning exercise create a number of catastrophic scenarios and seriously figure out what you would do.
This was standard practice when I was in the Navy as an officer on a submarine. We would start with the “what ifs” and work backwards to determine the “what do you do”? It took a lot of time and we had many things to do that we thought were much more important. Not doing the exercise was not an option. First we were in the military and we had to do what we were ordered to do. Second we were driving a US warship that was powered with a nuclear reactor. If something happened we had to be perfect. The exercise was successful. We made mistakes, we learned from each other, we were prepared and if any of those unexpected scenarios happened we were ready.
So what can you do to get ready for the future? First, block out time for the exercise. Get away from the hectic day-to-day (i.e. turn off the cell phone) and get your leadership team off site. Dr. Singh asked three questions to help get the discussion started:
1. What are your forks in the road (major decisions that need to be made, short, medium and long term)
2. What are your hidden assumptions? (what are the sacred cows that no one discusses but should in order to fairly evaluate the future?)
3. What are your sensors in the ground? (Facts & trends that may be favorable or unfavorable to your business model)
One last thing. Have fun. Use your innovation and creativity skills. Get to know how your leadership team thinks. Participate fully – it is OK to make mistakes. Think differently – stretch your imagination. Celebrate success.
When the unexpected happens, and it will, you and your team will be ready!
Until next time – all the best!
RolandB
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